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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2014.1
- 수록면
- 197 - 224 (28page)
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This study engineers a household sector where individuals process macroeconomic information to reproduce consumption spending patterns in New Zealand. To do this, heterogeneous artificial neural networks (ANNs) are trained to forecast changes in per worker consumption. In contrast to existing literature, results suggest that there exists a trained ANN that significantly outperforms a linear econometric model at out-of-sample forecasting. To improve the accuracy of ANNs using only in-sample information, methods for combining private knowledge into social knowledge are explored. For one type of ANN, relying on an expert is beneficial. For most ANN structures, weighting an individual's forecast according to how frequently that individual's ANN is a top performer during in-sample training produces more accurate social forecasts. By focusing only on recent periods, considering the severity of an individual's errors in weighting their forecast is also beneficial. Possible avenues for incorporating ANN structures into artificial social simulation models of consumption are discussed.
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참고문헌 (29)
참고문헌 신청
[학술지
Aminian, F. / 2006 / Forecasting economic data with neural networks / Computational Economics 28 (1) : 71 ~ 88
Arifovic, J. / 1994 / Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model / Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 18 (1) : 3 ~ 28
Barron, A. / 1993 / Universal approximation bounds for superpositions of a sigmoidal function / IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 39 (3) : 930 ~ 945
Bates, J. M. / 1969 / The combination of forecasts / Operational Research Quarterly 20 (4) : 451 ~ 468
Aminian, F. / 2006 / Forecasting economic data with neural networks / Computational Economics 28 (1) : 71 ~ 88
Arifovic, J. / 1994 / Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model / Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 18 (1) : 3 ~ 28
Barron, A. / 1993 / Universal approximation bounds for superpositions of a sigmoidal function / IEEE Transactions on Information Theory 39 (3) : 930 ~ 945
Bates, J. M. / 1969 / The combination of forecasts / Operational Research Quarterly 20 (4) : 451 ~ 468
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