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Using the newly developed ARDL Bounds cointegration testing framework, the effect of Korean won-Chinese yuan exchange rate uncertainty on bilateral trade flow between Korea and China is examined. The data span is from 1991Q1 to 2008Q4. The long-run equilibrium relationship exists between trade flow and its determinants; income, real exchange rate, uncertainty of exchange rate change. In the long-run, exchange rate uncertainty has a negative effects on both export and import. An increase of the uncertainty deters Korean export to China, but Korean import from China is not affected by the uncertainty in the short-run adjustment. Exchange rate stabilization policy could help to increase trade flows between both countries.
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참고문헌 (28)
참고문헌 신청
Akhtar, Mohammad A. / 1984 / Effects of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on German and U.S. Trade / Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review 9
Arize, A. C. / 2000 / Exchange-rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDCs / Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 18 (1)
Arize, A. C. / 2008 / Exchange-rate Volatility in Latin America and its Impact on Foreign Trade / International Review of Economics and Finance 17 (1)
Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen / 1993 / Does Exchange Rate Volatility Deter Trade Volume of LDCs / Journal of Economic Development 18 (2)
Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen / 2002 / Does Black Market Exchange Rate Volatility Deter the Trade Flows? Iranian Experiance / Applied Economics 34
Arize, A. C. / 2000 / Exchange-rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDCs / Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 18 (1)
Arize, A. C. / 2008 / Exchange-rate Volatility in Latin America and its Impact on Foreign Trade / International Review of Economics and Finance 17 (1)
Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen / 1993 / Does Exchange Rate Volatility Deter Trade Volume of LDCs / Journal of Economic Development 18 (2)
Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen / 2002 / Does Black Market Exchange Rate Volatility Deter the Trade Flows? Iranian Experiance / Applied Economics 34
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