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This paper examines the Granger causality relations between FDI, economic growth and AEC integration aimed at major ASEAN countries-Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand- by using time-series and panel data from 1993 to 2012.
Using time-series data of individual countries, we estimate the VAR of the three variables for finding the Granger causality relations. However, results revealed there is no consistent relationship of these variables among the major ASEAN countries.
For this reason, we construct the panel data of the three variables for the four ASEAN economies as one group and utilize the fixed effects model approach to estimate the panel data VAR equations for the Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results show that there are causality relations between FDI and economic growth, and between FDI and AEC integration, and lastly between AEC integration and economic growth. Even though there is no bi-directional causality relationship, FDI, AEC integration and ASEAN economicgrowth influence indirectly. As a result, we found that FDI affects economic integration and then AEC integration leads to ASEAN economic growth.
This paper provides a meaningful policy suggestion that for achieving sustainable economic growth in the ASEAN region, the ASEAN Comprehensive investment Agreement(ACIA) which is seen to attain additional FDI, should be pursued with great speed.
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참고문헌 (26)
참고문헌 신청
Bende-Nanende A. / 2001 / FDI, Regional Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth / Pacific Economic Review 6 (3) : 383 ~ 399
Brenton Paul / 1998 / Ecnomic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe : 1 ~ 133
Chowdhury, A. / 2006 / FDI and Growth : What causes What? / World Economy 29 (1) : 9 ~ 19
De Mello, L. R. / 1999 / Foreign Direct Investment-led Growth : Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data / Oxford Economic Papers 51 (1) : 133 ~ 151
Im, K. S. / 2003 / Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels / Journal of Econometrics 115 (1) : 53 ~ 74
Brenton Paul / 1998 / Ecnomic Integration and FDI: An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Investment in the EU and in Central and Eastern Europe : 1 ~ 133
Chowdhury, A. / 2006 / FDI and Growth : What causes What? / World Economy 29 (1) : 9 ~ 19
De Mello, L. R. / 1999 / Foreign Direct Investment-led Growth : Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data / Oxford Economic Papers 51 (1) : 133 ~ 151
Im, K. S. / 2003 / Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels / Journal of Econometrics 115 (1) : 53 ~ 74
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