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This paper quantifies the impact of climate change on agriculture in East Asian and South Asian countries using a CGE based energy model and the latest GTAP satellite energy database version 9. The rising temperature causes an adverse supply shock reducing the productivity of agricultural commodities. Lower productivity reduces crop production while increasing their prices. India and Pakistan are predicted to be the main net exporters of rice while China, Japan and Korea are the main net importers of wheat, vegetables and fruits, oil seeds, sugarcane and other agricultural products after climate change. Finally, both the welfare level and GDP decrease in most of the East Asian and South Asian countries after climate change and China is expected to bear the highest GDP losses. Although climate change might increase the number of poor in East Asia and South Asia, however it provides many options for green businesses.
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참고문헌 (30)
참고문헌 신청
Aguiar, A. / 2016 / An Overview of the GTAP 9Data Base / Journal of Global Economic Analysis 1 : 181 ~ 208
Al-Amin, A. / 2016 / Food Security Challenge of Climate Change:An Analysis for Policy Selection / Futures 83 : 50 ~ 63
Babiker, M. H. / 1997 / Carbon Taxes and the Global Trading System
Bandara, J. S. / 2014 / The Impact of Climate Change on Food Crop Productivity, Food Prices and Food Security in South Asia / Economic Analysis and Policy 44 (4) : 451 ~ 465
Bohringer, C. / 1997 / Environmental Tax Reforms and the Prospects for a Double Dividend: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany
Al-Amin, A. / 2016 / Food Security Challenge of Climate Change:An Analysis for Policy Selection / Futures 83 : 50 ~ 63
Babiker, M. H. / 1997 / Carbon Taxes and the Global Trading System
Bandara, J. S. / 2014 / The Impact of Climate Change on Food Crop Productivity, Food Prices and Food Security in South Asia / Economic Analysis and Policy 44 (4) : 451 ~ 465
Bohringer, C. / 1997 / Environmental Tax Reforms and the Prospects for a Double Dividend: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany
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