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연세대학교 의과대학 Yonsei Medical Journal Yonsei Medical Journal 제56권 제5호
발행연도
2015.1
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1,401 - 1,407 (7page)

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Purpose: The Physiological and Operative Severity Score for enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its Portsmouthmodification (P-POSSUM) are comprehensive assessment methods for evaluating patient and surgical factors widely used to predict 30-day mortality rates. In this retrospective study, we evaluated the usefulness of POSSUM and P-POSSUM in predicting30-day mortality after intraoperative cardiac arrests in adult patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery. Materials and Methods: Among 190486 patients who underwent anesthesia, 51 experienced intraoperative cardiac arrest as definedin our study protocol. Predicted mortality rates were calculated using POSSUM and P-POSSUM equations and were comparedwith actual outcomes using exponential and linear analyses. In addition, a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was undertaken, and area-under-the-curve (AUC) values with confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for POSSUM and P-POSSUM. Results: Among the 51 patients with intraoperative cardiac arrest, 32 (62.7%) died within 30 days postoperatively. The overall predicted30-day mortality rates using POSSUM and P-POSSUM were 65.5% and 57.5%, respectively. The observed-to-predicted (O:E) ratio for the POSSUM 30-day mortality was 1.07, with no significant difference between the observed and predicted values (χ2=4.794; p=0.779). P-POSSUM predicted mortality equally well, with an O:E ratio of 1.10 (χ2=8.905; p=0.350). AUC values (95% CI) were 0.771 (0.634–0.908) and 0.785 (0.651–0.918) for POSSUM and P-POSSUM, respectively. Conclusion: Both POSSUM and P-POSSUM performed well to predict overall 30-day mortality following intraoperative cardiac arrest in adults undergoing non-cardiac surgery at a university teaching hospital in Korea.

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