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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
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This study investigates the trends and uncertainty of the impacts of climate change on paddy rice production in the Geumho riverbasin. The Long Ashton Research Station stochastic Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to derive future climate data for theGeumho river basin from 15 General Circulation models (GCMs) for 3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A2, A1Band B1) included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. The Food and AgriculturalOrganization (FAO) AquaCrop, a water-driven crop model, was statistically calibrated for the 1982 to 2010 climate. The index ofagreement (IoA), prediction efficiency (R2), percent bias (PBIAS), root mean square error (RMSE) and a visual technique were usedto evaluate the adjusted AquaCrop simulated yield values. The adjusted simulated yields showed RMSE, NSE, IoA and PBIAS of0.40, 0.26, 0.76 and 0.59 respectively. The 5, 9 and 15 year central moving averages showed R2 of 0.78, 0.90 and 0.96 respectivelyafter adjustment. AquaCrop was run for the 2020s (2011-2030), 2050s (2046-2065) and 2090s (2080-2099). Climate change projectionsfor Geumho river basin generally indicate a hotter and wetter future climate with maximum increase in the annual temperature of4.5 °C in the 2090s A1B, as well as maximum increase in the rainfall of 45 % in the 2090s A2. The means (and ranges) of paddyrice yields are projected to increase by 21 % (17-25 %), 34 % (27-42 %) and 43 % (31-54 %) for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s,respectively. The A1B shows the largest rice yield uncertainty in all time slices with standard deviation of 0.148, 0.189 and 0.173 t· ha－1 for the 2020s, 2050s and 2090s, respectively.
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참고문헌 (23)
참고문헌 신청
Abedinpoura, M. / 2012 / Performance evaluation of AquaCrop model for maize crop in a semi-arid environment / Agricultural Water Management 110 : 55 ~ 66
Chung, S.-O. / 2012 / Uncertainty of paddy irrigation requirement estimated from climate change projections in the Geumho river basin, Korea / Paddy and Water Environment 10
Craufurd, P. Q. / 2013 / Crop science experiments designed to inform crop modeling / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170 : 8 ~ 18
Dono, G. / 2013 / Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems / Agricultural Systems 117 : 1 ~ 1
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) / 2007 / Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, In Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter
Chung, S.-O. / 2012 / Uncertainty of paddy irrigation requirement estimated from climate change projections in the Geumho river basin, Korea / Paddy and Water Environment 10
Craufurd, P. Q. / 2013 / Crop science experiments designed to inform crop modeling / Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 170 : 8 ~ 18
Dono, G. / 2013 / Adapting to uncertainty associated with short-term climate variability changes in irrigated Mediterranean farming systems / Agricultural Systems 117 : 1 ~ 1
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) / 2007 / Climate change 2007: the physical science basis, In Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter
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