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학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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In this study, we estimated probable precipitation amounts at the target year (2020, 2030, 2040) of 55 weather stations in Korea using the 24 hour annual maximum precipitation data from 1973 through 2009 which should be useful for management of agricultural reservoirs. Not only trend tests but also non-stationary tests were performed and non-stationary frequency analysis were conducted to all of 55 sites. Gumbel distribution was chosen and probability weighted moment method was used to estimate model parameters. The behavior of the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter were analyzed. The probable precipitation amount at the target year was estimated by a non-stationary frequency analysis using the linear regression analysis for the mean of extreme precipitation data, scale parameter, and location parameter. Overall results demonstrated that the probable precipitation amounts using the non-stationary frequency analysis were overestimated. There were large increase of the probable precipitation amounts of middle part of Korea and decrease at several sites in Southern part. The non-stationary frequency analysis using a linear model should be applicable to relatively short projection periods.
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참고문헌 (11)
참고문헌 신청
Ahn, J. H. / 2000 / Analysis of the changes in rainfall quantile according to the increase of data period / Journal of Korea Water Resources Association 33 (5) : 569 ~ 580
He, Y. / 2006 / Nonstationary flood frequency analysis in southern Germany / The 7th International Conference on Hydro Science and Engineering, Philadelphia, USA
Renard, B. / 2006 / Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context via a bayesian framework: case study with peak-overthreshold data / Stoch Environ Res R
Sugahara, S. / 2009 / Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil / International Journal of Climatology 29 : 1339 ~ 1349
권영문 / 2009 / 강우량의 증가 경향성을 고려한 목표년도 확률강우량 산정 / 대한토목학회 논문집B 29 (2) : 131 ~ 139
He, Y. / 2006 / Nonstationary flood frequency analysis in southern Germany / The 7th International Conference on Hydro Science and Engineering, Philadelphia, USA
Renard, B. / 2006 / Statistical analysis of extreme events in a non-stationary context via a bayesian framework: case study with peak-overthreshold data / Stoch Environ Res R
Sugahara, S. / 2009 / Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil / International Journal of Climatology 29 : 1339 ~ 1349
권영문 / 2009 / 강우량의 증가 경향성을 고려한 목표년도 확률강우량 산정 / 대한토목학회 논문집B 29 (2) : 131 ~ 139
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