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Stochastic epidemic model estimation using Monte Carlo expection maximization algorithm
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몬테 카를로 expectation maximization 방법을 이용한 확률적 질병 확산 모형 추정 연구

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Type
Academic journal
Author
Boseung Choi (고려대학교) Yong Hwa Yoon (대구대학교)
Journal
The Korean Data and Information Science Society Journal of the Korean Data And Information Science Society Vol.29 No.1 KCI Excellent Accredited Journal
Published
2018.1
Pages
97 - 109 (13page)
DOI
10.7465/jkdi.2018.29.1.97

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Stochastic epidemic model estimation using Monte Carlo expection maximization algorithm
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Abstract· Keywords

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In this paper, we introduce a statistical method for modeling the spread of disease. Historically, the ordinary differential equation is proposed to construct the epidemic model. However, the deterministic approach for the epidemic model is too simplified to capture the stochastic behavior of spread of disease. We consider the stochastic kinetic networks model for the epidemic modeling and we proposed MCEM (Monte Carlo expectation maximization) method to perform the statistical inference for reaction constants of the stochastic epidemic model. We applied our MCEM method to a synthetic data from the representative stochastic epidemic model, named SIRS (susceptible - infected - recovered - susceptible) model and we compared proposed MCEM method with two Bayesian MCMC methods. The MCEM result gives stable and faster convergence results. We also MCEM method to the data from the onset of early pandemic of H1N1 in the US. The proposed MCEM method can be an alternative to the estimation method for the stochastic epidemic model.
#몬테 카를로 EM 알고리즘 #에스아이알에스 모형 #질병 확산 모형 #확률적 화학 반응 모형 #Epidemic model #MCEM algorithm #SIRS model #stochastic chemical reaction model

Contents

요약
1. 서론
2. 통계적 모형 추정 방법
3. 자료 분석
4. 결론
References
Abstract

References (19)

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[단행본] - Andersson, H. / 2000 / Stochastic epidemic models and their statistical analysis / Springer google schola [학술지(정기간행물)] - Boys, R. J. / 2008 / Bayesian inference for a discretely observed stochastic kinetic model / Statistics and Computing 18 : 125 ~ 135 Crossref [학술지(정기간행물)] - 최보승 / 2015 / 확률적 방법에 기반한 화학 반응 모형의 모수 추정 방법 / 한국데이터정보과학회지 26 (4) : 813 ~ 826 dbpia [학술지(정기간행물)] - Choi, B. / 2012 / Inference for discretely observed stochastic kinetic networks with applications to epidemic modeling / Biostatistics 13 : 153 ~ 165 Crossref [학술지(정기간행물)] - Deijfen, M. / 2011 / Epidemics and vaccination on weighted graphs / Mathematical biosciences 232 : 57 ~ 65 Crossref

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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2018-041-001766141