메뉴 건너뛰기
.. 내서재 .. 알림
소속 기관/학교 인증
인증하면 논문, 학술자료 등을  무료로 열람할 수 있어요.
한국대학교, 누리자동차, 시립도서관 등 나의 기관을 확인해보세요
(국내 대학 90% 이상 구독 중)
로그인 회원가입 고객센터 ENG
주제분류
인문학
인문학 일반 역사학 철학 종교학 어문학 기타 인문학
사회과학
사회과학 일반 경영학 관광학 교육학 군사학 문헌정보학 법학 사회학 신문방송학 심리과학 정치외교학 지리학 행정학 경제학 무역학 인류학 기타 사회과학
자연과학
자연과학 일반 물리학 생물학 생활과학 수학·통계학 천문학 지구과학 화학 기타 자연과학
공학
공학 일반 건축공학 기계공학 산업공학 재료·에너지공학 전기전자공학 조선해양공학 화학공학 컴퓨터학 기타공학
의약학
의학 일반 간호학 수의학 약학 한의학 기초의학 임상의학 기타 의약학
농수해양학
농수해양학 일반 농학 수산학 식품과학 임학 축산학 해상운송학 기타 농수해양학
예술체육학
예술 일반 디자인 미술 미용 사진 음악학 의상 체육 공연매체예술 기타 예술체육학
복합학
학제간연구 과학기술학 뇌인지과학 기술정책 기타 복합학

ENG

추천
검색

논문 기본 정보

자료유형
동향자료
저자정보
KIM Wongi
저널정보
대외경제정책연구원 [KIEP] World Economy Brief World Economy Brief 제17권 제14호
발행연도
2017.6
수록면
0 - 0 (1page)

이용수

표지
📌
연구주제
📖
연구배경
🔬
연구방법
🏆
연구결과
AI에게 요청하기
추천
검색

초록· 키워드

오류제보하기
As shown in various data, during the 2008-2009 financial crisis period, the real GDP of each country recovered slowly after a sharp decline, but is recovering differently in each country. In the case of the United States, it shows a rapid recovery compared to Japan and Europe. Despite the rapid recovery compared to other developed countries, there are still many people who harbor doubts regarding the mid- to long-term growth path of the U.S. economy. In the mid-to-long term, the growth potential of the U.S. is limited to the mid-1% range, and renowned economists such as Larry Summers and Paul Krugman are questioning the U.S.'s long-term growth by insisting on its secular stagnation. The U.S. mid- to long-term growth path will have a crucial impact on the future growth of the global economy in light of the U.S. weighting in the global economy. Especially, in the case of Korea, export is still a large part of the economy and the mid- to long-term growth of the global economy accounts for a large portion of Korea's mid- to long-term growth. In this situation, it is important to find a way to accelerate economic recovery through benchmarking of U.S. growth policies. We use the growth accounting method to diagnose whether the U.S. will grow in the medium-to-long term. Growth accounting is a method for analyzing the effects of supply side factors such as labor supply, total factor productivity, and labor quality on mid- and long-term growth, and is particularly appropriate for analyzing the impact of trend growth decline. The results of the analysis are as follows. According to labor supply factors, such as the degree of population aging, the quality of education and productivity, the U.S. economic potential growth rate is found to range from 1.4% to 2.9% on average by 2060 unless the effects of the aging of its population are reduced or there is a rapid increase in productivity due to the recent 4th industrial revolution. In spite of the not-so-great mid- to long-term growth path of the U.S., why is the U.S. re-covering faster than other developed countries after the financial crisis? One important reason is active monetary and fiscal policy. During the financial crisis, the U.S. Fed cut its policy rate to zero and conducted quantitative easing. Furthermore, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was enacted by the Obama administration to carry out a huge-scale fiscal stimulus package to boost the economy. In addition to these monetary and fiscal policies, supply side policies such as R&D investment played an important role to support the fast recovery. Based on the macroeconomic model that we build, we examined the impact of the decline in trend growth on the economic recovery and searched for the reasons of the rapid recovery of the U.S. Productivity is recovering faster in the U.S. than other countries after the financial crisis. The results of the model analysis show that the recovery of productivity reduces the decline of trend growth, and this better trend growth is positive for current consumption and investment as it improves expectations for future income increase. This rapid U.S. productivity recovery can be attributed to the large-scale national R&D initiated during and after the financial crisis The policy implications suggested in this paper can be divided into two major categories. First, the implications for the mid- to long-term foreign policy are as follows. The U.S. is Korea's second largest export market and has a large impact on the global economy. The Korean economy is still highly dependent on exports. Considering this point, we need to diversify our export markets, increase export unit price through development of high value-added products, and develop core goods that are less affected by economic fluctuations. In addition, Korea's mid- to long-term growth strategy suggestions are as follows. As a result of supply side analyzing of the growth rate of Korea, the recent decline in growth rate is caused by productivity decline, decrease of capital accumulation, and low contribution of labor supply. Therefore, it is necessary to implement investment promotion policies similar to productivity improvement and innovation-related policies actively promoted by the Obama administration. Finally, the implications for national R&D policy for mid- to long-term growth are as follows. Korea's R&D spending is quantitatively the top among OECD countries. However, the uncertainty of its R&D spending is much higher than in the U.S. Uncertainty as a result of increased volatility in R&D expenditure may result in lower efficiency of R&D spending by hindering stable research. In Korea, it will be important to benchmark such a system to ensure the sustainability of R&D investment and raise efficiency.

목차

등록된 정보가 없습니다.

참고문헌 (0)

참고문헌 신청
참고문헌이 DBpia에서 서비스 중이라면, [참고문헌 신청]을 통해 등록해보세요

함께 읽어보면 좋을 논문

논문 유사도에 따라 DBpia 가 추천하는 논문입니다. 함께 보면 좋을 연관 논문을 확인해보세요!

최근 본 자료

전체보기

댓글(0)

0