지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
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연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2016.2
- 수록면
- 198 - 210 (13page)
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초록· 키워드
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This study firstly aims to estimate a leading-price of Jeju flounders with various price-classes by fish weight and secondly plans to provide policy implications of flounder purchase projects by understanding dynamic changes and interactions among flounder producer price-classes caused by price impulses in the market.
This study applies an unit root test for stability of data, uses a Granger causality test to estimate the leading-price among producer prices by fish weight, employs the vector autoregressive model to analyze statistical impacts among t-1 variables used in models, and finally utilizes impulse response analyses and forecast error variance decomposition analyses to understand dynamic changes and interactions among change rates of the producer prices caused by price impulses in the market.
The results of the study are as follows. Firstly, KPSS, PP, and ADF tests show that the change rate of Jeju flounder monthly producer prices by fish weight differentiated by logarithm is stable. Secondly, the Granger causality test presents that the change rate of the 1kg flounder producer price strongly leads it of 500g, 700g, and 2㎏ flounder producer prices respectively. Thirdly, the vector autoregressive model indicates that the change rate of the 1kg producer price in t-1 period statistically, significantly influences it of own weight in t period and also slightly affects price change rates of other weights in t period. Fourthly, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of structural shocks for the change rate of the 1kg producer price are relatively more powerful in its own weight and in other weights than shocks emanating from price change rates of other weights. Fifthly, the variance decomposition analysis points out that the change rate of the 1kg producer price is relatively more influential than it of 500g, 700g, and 2㎏ producer prices respectively.
In conclusion, the change rate of the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price leads the change rates of other ones and Jeju purchase projects need to be targeted to the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price as the purchase project implemented in 2014.
This study applies an unit root test for stability of data, uses a Granger causality test to estimate the leading-price among producer prices by fish weight, employs the vector autoregressive model to analyze statistical impacts among t-1 variables used in models, and finally utilizes impulse response analyses and forecast error variance decomposition analyses to understand dynamic changes and interactions among change rates of the producer prices caused by price impulses in the market.
The results of the study are as follows. Firstly, KPSS, PP, and ADF tests show that the change rate of Jeju flounder monthly producer prices by fish weight differentiated by logarithm is stable. Secondly, the Granger causality test presents that the change rate of the 1kg flounder producer price strongly leads it of 500g, 700g, and 2㎏ flounder producer prices respectively. Thirdly, the vector autoregressive model indicates that the change rate of the 1kg producer price in t-1 period statistically, significantly influences it of own weight in t period and also slightly affects price change rates of other weights in t period. Fourthly, the impulse response analysis indicates that impulse responses of structural shocks for the change rate of the 1kg producer price are relatively more powerful in its own weight and in other weights than shocks emanating from price change rates of other weights. Fifthly, the variance decomposition analysis points out that the change rate of the 1kg producer price is relatively more influential than it of 500g, 700g, and 2㎏ producer prices respectively.
In conclusion, the change rate of the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price leads the change rates of other ones and Jeju purchase projects need to be targeted to the 1kg Jeju flounder producer price as the purchase project implemented in 2014.
목차
Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 이론적 배경
Ⅲ. 실증 분석
Ⅳ. 요약 및 결론
References
참고문헌 (22)
참고문헌 신청
Cha, Y. K. Kim, K. S.(2009), A causality analysis of the prices between imported fisheries and domestic fisheries in distribution channel, The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration, 40(2), 45~65.
Choi, B. O. Kim, W. T.(2007), An analysis of dynamic causal relationship between local and terminal wholesale market prices for oriental melon, J Rural Dev 30, 30(3), 69~85.
Dickey, D. A. Fuller, W. A.(1979), Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427~431.
Granger, C. W. J.(1969), Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37(3), 424~438.
Jeong, M. G. Heo, D.(2000), Causal relationships among beef prices causal relationships between beef prices by marketing stages, J Rural Dev, 23(1), 55~66.
Choi, B. O. Kim, W. T.(2007), An analysis of dynamic causal relationship between local and terminal wholesale market prices for oriental melon, J Rural Dev 30, 30(3), 69~85.
Dickey, D. A. Fuller, W. A.(1979), Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427~431.
Granger, C. W. J.(1969), Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37(3), 424~438.
Jeong, M. G. Heo, D.(2000), Causal relationships among beef prices causal relationships between beef prices by marketing stages, J Rural Dev, 23(1), 55~66.
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2016-374-002373228