지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 연구보고서
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2012.12
- 수록면
- 1 - 187 (187page)
이용수
DBpia Top 1%동일한 주제분류 기준으로최근 2년간 이용수 순으로 정렬했을 때
해당 논문이 위치하는 상위 비율을 의미합니다.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Background of Research
Climate change caused by global warming, which refers to the average increase in global temperature, has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korea’s and overseas agencies specialized in climate predict that the average global temperature will continue to rise. While climate change has a positive impact on the food sector, significantly negative impacts are dominant. In this context, this study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system to respond to climate change.
Method of Research
In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, various analytical models were used, for example, a response analysis based on the questionnaire for farmers, an analysis of causes of pests and diseases in rice production by using the panel data, an analysis of extreme weather impacts by using the panel analysis-random effects model, and an analysis of food supply effects by using an integrated model in which the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model is connected to the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO).
Research Results and Implications
An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO to reveal reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, to result in rice reduction by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and soybean reduction by 21.2%p and barley reduction by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that self-sufficiency ratio of rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity, the import capacity from other countries, and the policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing the infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving the buffering capacity are suggested by improving resilience and bio-diversity, building a risk management system, and further storing up food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are suggested by constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with involved countries. Finally, key tasks for improving the policy performance capacity are suggested by refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model to policies, expanding investments in research and development and building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing climate change centers.
Climate change caused by global warming, which refers to the average increase in global temperature, has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korea’s and overseas agencies specialized in climate predict that the average global temperature will continue to rise. While climate change has a positive impact on the food sector, significantly negative impacts are dominant. In this context, this study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system to respond to climate change.
Method of Research
In order to accomplish the purpose of this study, various analytical models were used, for example, a response analysis based on the questionnaire for farmers, an analysis of causes of pests and diseases in rice production by using the panel data, an analysis of extreme weather impacts by using the panel analysis-random effects model, and an analysis of food supply effects by using an integrated model in which the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model is connected to the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO).
Research Results and Implications
An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO to reveal reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, to result in rice reduction by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and soybean reduction by 21.2%p and barley reduction by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that self-sufficiency ratio of rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported. Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity, the import capacity from other countries, and the policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing the infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving the buffering capacity are suggested by improving resilience and bio-diversity, building a risk management system, and further storing up food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are suggested by constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with involved countries. Finally, key tasks for improving the policy performance capacity are suggested by refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model to policies, expanding investments in research and development and building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing climate change centers.
목차
[표지]
[머리말]
[요약]
연구의 배경
연구방법
연구결과 및 시사점
[ABSTRACT]
Background of Research
Method of Research
Research Results and Implications
[차례]
표차례
그림차례
[제1장 서론]
1. 연구의 필요성
2. 연구목적 및 범위
3. 선행연구 검토
4. 연구방법
5. 보고서의 구성
[제2장 국내외 기후변화의 실태진단과 전망]
1. 세계 기후변화 실태와 전망
2. 우리나라 기후변화 실태와 전망
[제3장 기후변화와 국내 식량생산 잠재력 진단]
1. 기후변화와 식량생산의 관계
2. 식량수급과 농경지 면적 변화 진단
3. 기후변화에 따른 작물생산성 진단
4. 기후변화와 병해충 발생
[제4장 기후변화가 식량공급에 미치는 영향]
1. 기후변화에 따른 식량생산 영향 분석
2. 이상기상과 식량공급 연계 분석
3. 기후변화와 국제 곡물시장 분석
4. 기후변화와 식량공급 관련 농업인 인식 및 반응분석
[제5장 국제기구와 주요국의 대응 사례]
1. 국제기구의 논의동향과 대응과제
2. 주요국의 대응사례
3. 국제기구 및 주요국 대응사례의 시사점
[제6장 기후변화 대응 안정적 식량공급체계 구축 방안]
1. 기본방향
2. 접근방법과 정책추진 로드맵
3. 분야별 주요 핵심과제
[제7장 요약 및 결론]
[부록]
[참고문헌]
참고문헌 (0)
참고문헌 신청이 논문의 저자 정보
이 논문과 함께 이용한 논문
최근 본 자료
댓글(0)
0
UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2015-520-002802724