지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 연구보고서
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2011.11
- 수록면
- 1 - 155 (155page)
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초록· 키워드
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With a 2010 population of more than 1.35 billion people, China is home to roughly 20 percent of the world’s inhabitants. This fact alone makes China’s demand for agricultural products a huge factor in how world prices of agricultural commodities behave. However, not only is China’s percentage of world population large, its share of world GDP is growing. With China’s real GDP expressed in U.S. dollars more than doubling from 2003 to 2010, China’s share of world GDP has increased from 4.0 percent in 2002 to 7.4 percent in 2010. Considering that agricultural producers in China are also facing constraints on the availability of land and water, which will make it difficult to sustain large increases in their agricultural production base, large jumps in demand for agricultural products within China could have profound effect on world markets, affecting other nations who are major suppliers or major importers of these goods.
This study analyzed direct and indirect impacts of structural change in the supply and demand side of Chinese agriculture on the Korean economy based on the combination of the following models: China"s Agricultural Policy Simulation Model(CAPSIM), the modeling system of Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute(FAPRI) at the University of Missouri-Columbia in the U.S., and Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KREI-KASMO).
In order to better understand the impact of Chinese agriculture and agricultural policies on Korean agriculture, we tried to forecast the long-term outlook of Chinese agriculture for 13 agricultural commodities on the supply and demand side based on CAPSIM through a co-project between the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI). Unfortunately, CAPSIM did not cover vegetables and fruits yet, so we tried to build structural models on these items and added some modules to CAPSIM to predict the future.
In addition, through a co-project between Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri-Columbia (FAPRI-MU) and KREI, this study calculated the global impact of China"s structural change in demand in terms of price and trade volume. This analysis considered how a 10 percent increase in China’s domestic consumption of seven different commodities(rice, corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean products, beef, pork and chicken) would impact the world prices of these products, internal Chinese prices, and production and consumption of these goods within China as well as the rest of the world. To assess the changes from stronger than expected income levels in China, an additional study is conducted in which China’s real GDP is allowed to increase 10 percent. It is important to note that this analysis assumes that any increase in Chinese domestic consumption above and beyond production increases results in increased net imports. While the government has a history of using trade barriers to protect China’s domestic industries(some industries have been protected more than others), this analysis assumes that all additional demand will be met by increases in Chinese production or more imports. No assumptions are made about increased levels of trade protection.
We anticipate that this study is a meaningful first-stage project to establish a world model to prepare for various FTAs and make supply-demand projections on world grain market for stabilization of domestic prices.
This study analyzed direct and indirect impacts of structural change in the supply and demand side of Chinese agriculture on the Korean economy based on the combination of the following models: China"s Agricultural Policy Simulation Model(CAPSIM), the modeling system of Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute(FAPRI) at the University of Missouri-Columbia in the U.S., and Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KREI-KASMO).
In order to better understand the impact of Chinese agriculture and agricultural policies on Korean agriculture, we tried to forecast the long-term outlook of Chinese agriculture for 13 agricultural commodities on the supply and demand side based on CAPSIM through a co-project between the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) and Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI). Unfortunately, CAPSIM did not cover vegetables and fruits yet, so we tried to build structural models on these items and added some modules to CAPSIM to predict the future.
In addition, through a co-project between Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri-Columbia (FAPRI-MU) and KREI, this study calculated the global impact of China"s structural change in demand in terms of price and trade volume. This analysis considered how a 10 percent increase in China’s domestic consumption of seven different commodities(rice, corn, wheat, soybeans and soybean products, beef, pork and chicken) would impact the world prices of these products, internal Chinese prices, and production and consumption of these goods within China as well as the rest of the world. To assess the changes from stronger than expected income levels in China, an additional study is conducted in which China’s real GDP is allowed to increase 10 percent. It is important to note that this analysis assumes that any increase in Chinese domestic consumption above and beyond production increases results in increased net imports. While the government has a history of using trade barriers to protect China’s domestic industries(some industries have been protected more than others), this analysis assumes that all additional demand will be met by increases in Chinese production or more imports. No assumptions are made about increased levels of trade protection.
We anticipate that this study is a meaningful first-stage project to establish a world model to prepare for various FTAs and make supply-demand projections on world grain market for stabilization of domestic prices.
목차
[표지]
[목차]
표목차
그림목차
[요약]
[ABSTRACT]
[제1장 서론]
1. 연구의 필요성
2. 연구 목적
3. 연구 방법 및 내용
[제2장 중국의 농산물 수급 현황 및 변화 요인]
1. 곡물
2. 양념채소
3. 과일
4. 축산물
[제3장 중국의 중장기 농산물 수급 전망]
1. 중국 농업전망모형(CAPSiM) 구조
2. 중국 양념채소, 과일 모형 구축
3. 중국의 중장기 농산물 수급 전망
[제4장 중국 구조변화의 파급 영향]
1. 분석 방법
2. 시뮬레이션 결과
[제5장 요약 및 시사점]
[부록]
[참고 문헌]
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2015-520-002536123