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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 연구보고서
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국농촌경제연구원 한국농촌경제연구원 기본연구보고서 [기본연구보고-R663] Impacts and Countermeasures of Climate Change on Food Supply
- 발행연도
- 2013.12
- 수록면
- 1 - 190 (190page)
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초록· 키워드
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Climate change has become a megatrend that will lead to significant changes in future society. Korean and overseas agencies specializing in climate forecasts predict that average global temperatures will continue to rise. While climate change may potentially have certain positive impacts for crop yields, the overall impact is predicted to be negative for environment and food security. In this context, our study aims to suggest a plan for systematically establishing a stable food supply system in Korea in respose to climate change.
Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO).
An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported.
Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative).
In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs.
Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such field research can be used to prepare effective measures in the struggle to build a stable food supply system.
Various analytical models were employed, including: a response analysis based on questionnaire for farmers, panel-based analysis of the causes of pests and diseases in rice production, a random-effects model for panel data of extreme weather impact, and an analysis of food supply effects using the Simulation Model for Climate-Agriculture Relations (SIMCAR) integrated model in conjunction with the Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) model of the Korea Agricultural Simulation Model (KASMO).
An analysis was made of major grain yields by means of the KREI-KASMO. This revealed reduced yields and area in comparison with the baseline in 2050, resulting in a reduction of rice production by 17.8%p in the RCP8.5 scenario, and reduction of soybean by 21.2%p and reduction of barley by 13.7%p in the A2 scenario. Self-sufficiency ratio of major grains in 2050 drawn from the SIMCAR revealed that the climate change scenario for rice showed 55.0% to be reduced by 18.3% in comparison with the baseline. It is predicted that selfsufficiency ratio in rice will drop to 50% which means a half of consumed rice should be imported.
Key tasks for building a stable food supply system to cope with climate change were developed based on the domestic production capacity, the buffering capacity to climate change, import capacity from other countries, and policy performance capacity with reference to the empirical analysis. First, the suggested key tasks for improving the domestic production capacity include developing and disseminating adaptation technology, conserving farmland and expanding arable land, practicing climate-smart agriculture by using fusion technology, and modernizing infrastructure for agriculture. Second, key tasks for improving buffering capacity to climate change are improving resilience and biodiversity, building a risk management system, and further improving storage of food in Korea and other countries. Third, major tasks for improving the import capacity from other countries are constructing overseas food bases, effectively using the international grain market, and enhancing international cooperation with relevant countries. Finally, key tasks for improving policy performance capacity are refining and applying the climate change impact analysis model with respect to policies, expanding investments in research and development, building a vulnerability assessment system, enhancing education and training, and installing Climate Change Response Center for Agriculture (tentative).
In this study, several key challenges were presented in the four different areas related to building a stable food supply system which can help overcome the challenges of climate change. It is expected that the nature of the policies that need to be prioritized and promoted, given the constraints of budget, organization and information will be addressed in future research. Also, in order for the solutions for key challenges to work properly in the field such that policy outcomes will be maximized, a consortium of research bodies in the related fields of agriculture, agricultural meteorology and agricultural economics should be created. As preparation for specific action programs.
Furthermore, follow-up studies should be conducted to verify the expenses required for developing reliable climate change impact assessment models and the effectiveness of the enforced policies. Such field research can be used to prepare effective measures in the struggle to build a stable food supply system.
목차
[표지]
[Preface]
[ABSTRACT]
[TABLE OF CONTENTS]
TABLE
FIGURE
[Chapter 1. Introduction]
1. Need for Research
2. Purpose and Scope of Research
3. Review of Preceding Studies
4. Study Methods
5. Composition of the Report
[Chapter 2. Current Conditions and Forecast of Domestic and Global Climate Change]
1. Current Conditions and Forecast of Global Climate Change
2. Current Conditions and Forecast of Climate Change in Korea
[Chapter 3. Diagnosis of Climate Change and Domestic Potential for Food Production]
1. Relationship between Climate Change and Food Production
2. Diagnosis of Changes in the Food Demand and Supply and the Arable land area
3. Diagnosis of Crop Productivity following Climate Change
4. Climate Change and Pest Infestation
[Chapter 4. Impacts of Climate Change on Food Supply]
1. Analysis of Climate Change Impact on Food Production
2. Analysis of Link between Abnormal Weather and Food Supply
3. Analysis of Climate Change Impact on International Grain Markets
4. Analysis of Farmers’ Recognition of and Responses to Climate Change and Food Supply
[Chapter 5. Case Study for International Organizations’ and Major Countries’ Countermeasures]
1. Trend of Discussions among International Organizations and Future Tasks
2. Case Study for Major Countries’ Countermeasures
3. Implications of the Case Study for International Organizations’ and Major Countries’ Countermeasures
[Chapter 6. Plans for Developing a Stable Food Supply System in Response to Climate Change]
1. Basic Directions
2. Approaches and Roadmap for Policy Implementation
3. Major Tasks for Each Sector
[Chapter 7. Summary and Conclusion]
[Reference]
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2015-520-002558794