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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2013.6
- 수록면
- 1 - 19 (19page)
- DOI
- 10.15235/jir.2013.06.16.1.1
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초록· 키워드
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The global imbalance - accumulation of massive current account deficit and consequent growing external debt of the US - is the most serious factor to threaten the stability of the world economy. The persistent current deficit of US, which is dependent upon the inflows of foreign capital, cannot persist indefinitely and the correction of the global imbalance is inevitable sooner or later. Then what effect does the correction of the global economy have on the growth of the US and the world economy? The analysis based on the linked growth model shows that exchange rate adjustment should have only a limited effect on the correction of global imbalance and that the correction of the imbalance should proceed by changes in domestic autonomous demand of the nations involved. The adjustment to the imbalance by changes in autonomous demands tends to have extensive impact on the growth of the nations involved by the effect of foreign linked multiplier. In the international economy, there is an inherent asymmetry in adjustment mechanism of balance-of-payment disequilibrium. Because of this asymmetry, the global imbalance should be corrected by deficit country, which is the US, with deflationary measures. This deflationary adjustment of the US inevitably drags down the growth of the world economy by linked multiplier effect.
By contrast, if the relevant nations prevent the working of asymmetric adjustment mechanism and initiate reflationary adjustment by surplus countries to the global imbalance successfully with their policy coordination, the adjustment to the imbalance should lead the world economy to a higher growth, a type of complementary growth. With the global imbalance, a most dangerous risk of the world economy, and the dismal prospect in economic growth ahead, the world faces a most difficult task. It stands on the turning point whether it could proceed to a prosperous complementary economic growth with a successful policy coordination or be dragged to a low and stagnant economic growth with the US deflationary adjustment to the global imbalance.
By contrast, if the relevant nations prevent the working of asymmetric adjustment mechanism and initiate reflationary adjustment by surplus countries to the global imbalance successfully with their policy coordination, the adjustment to the imbalance should lead the world economy to a higher growth, a type of complementary growth. With the global imbalance, a most dangerous risk of the world economy, and the dismal prospect in economic growth ahead, the world faces a most difficult task. It stands on the turning point whether it could proceed to a prosperous complementary economic growth with a successful policy coordination or be dragged to a low and stagnant economic growth with the US deflationary adjustment to the global imbalance.
목차
ABSTRACT
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 맥콤비-썰월 연계성장모형
Ⅲ. 국제수지 불균형과 비대칭적 조정
Ⅳ. 글로벌 불균형과 불균형의 조정
Ⅴ. 정책적 함의
Ⅵ. 결어
참고문헌
참고문헌 (16)
참고문헌 신청
1. [단행본] - 조갑제 / 2009 / 국제금융 / 도서출판 두남 : 35 ~ 37
2. [보고서] - 조종화 / 2008 / 국제자본이동 패턴의 변화와 미국의 경상수지 적자 보전 : 1 ~ 133
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Joshua Aizenman / 2010 / Globalization and the sustainability of large current account imbalances: Size matters / Journal of Macroeconomics 32 : 35 ~ 44
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Sonmez H / 1997 / On the dynamics of balance-of-payments-constrained growth / Applied Economics 29 (10) : 1343 ~ 1351
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Erkin I. Bairam / 2001 / Thirlwall’s law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities / International Review of Applied Economics 15 (3) : 287 ~ 303
2. [보고서] - 조종화 / 2008 / 국제자본이동 패턴의 변화와 미국의 경상수지 적자 보전 : 1 ~ 133
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Joshua Aizenman / 2010 / Globalization and the sustainability of large current account imbalances: Size matters / Journal of Macroeconomics 32 : 35 ~ 44
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Sonmez H / 1997 / On the dynamics of balance-of-payments-constrained growth / Applied Economics 29 (10) : 1343 ~ 1351
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Erkin I. Bairam / 2001 / Thirlwall’s law and the Stability of Export and Import Income Elasticities / International Review of Applied Economics 15 (3) : 287 ~ 303
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2015-340-001275296