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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술대회자료
저자정보
Byoung Ky Chang (부경대학교)
저널정보
한국무역학회 한국무역학회 학술대회 한국무역학회 춘계학술발표대회 및 정책세미나
발행연도
2013.5
수록면
383 - 403 (21page)

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This study investigates the nature and extent of return and volatility spillovers among 10 East Asian exchange rates using the variance decomposition results from a generalized VAR and the corresponding generalized spillover index given by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), which overcomes the drawbacks generally found in identification schemes of variance decompositions. Several results are remarkable. First, the spillovers have increased dramatically, but fluctuate periodically. The upward trend of spillovers is consistent with a continuous increase in financial market integration. Second, the return and volatility spillovers show large variability over time and are positively associated with extreme economic episodes, such as the Asian crisis of 1997, the dollar crisis of 2005, the global financial crisis of 2008 2009, and the ongoing European debt crisis. Third, the time varying patterns of the return and volatility spillovers are very different across exchange rates. For example, the Korean won has been experienced the most dramatic increase in the return spillover from others, and the Singapore dollar is the most dominant net transmitter of return spillover, hence playing the role of a leader. These results have important implications for exchange rate forecast, risk management, central bank interventions and international trade.

목차

Abstract
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Statistical Method and Data
Ⅲ. Empirical Findings
Ⅳ. Conclusion
References

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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2014-320-002563577