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A nuclear energy has been one of the most important sources to securely supply electricity in South Korea. Its weight in the national electricity supply has kept increasing since the first nuclear reactor was built in 1978. The country relies on the nuclear approximately 31.4% in 2012 and it is expected to increase to 48.5% in 2024 based on the long-term electricity supply plan announced by the Korean government. However, Fukushima disaster due to 9.0 magnitude earthquake followed by the tsunami has raised deep concerns on the security of the nuclear power plants. The policy makers of the country are much interested in analyzing the cost structure of the power supply in the case that the nuclear is diminished from the current supply portion. This research uses a stochastic model that aims to evaluate the long-term power supply plan and provides an extensive cost analysis on the changes of the nuclear power supply. To evaluate a power supply plan, the research develops a few plausible energy mix scenarios by changing the installed capacities of energy sources from the long-term electricity supply plan. The analyses show that the nuclear is still the most attractive energy source since its fuel cost is very much stable compared to the other sources. Also the results demonstrate that a large amount of financial expenditure is additionally required every year if Koreans agree on the reduction of nuclear to increase national security against a nuclear disaster.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 문헌 연구
3. 전력비용 평가모형
4. 실증 분석
5. 결론
참고문헌
참고문헌 (23)
참고문헌 신청
1. [학위논문] - 김상갑 / 2010 / 포트폴리오 기법에 의한 전원구성비의 적정성 연구 / 석사 / 한국산업기술대학교 지식기반기술·에너지대학원
2. [학술대회논문] - 옥기열 / 2007 / 우리나라 전원믹스의경제성 및 공급안정성에 관한 연구 / 대한전기학회 하계학술대회논문집 : 826 ~ 827
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 정성춘 / 2012 / 동일본 대지진 이후 일본의 에너지선택： [발전단가 검증위원회] 결과분석 및 시사점 / KIEP 오늘의 세계경제 12 (3) : 1 ~ 12
7. [학술대회논문] - IAEA / 2012 / Nuclear Technology Review 2012 / Fifty-sixth regular session
8. [보고서] - Awerbuch, S. / 2003 / Applying portfolio theory to EU electricity planning and policy making
2. [학술대회논문] - 옥기열 / 2007 / 우리나라 전원믹스의경제성 및 공급안정성에 관한 연구 / 대한전기학회 하계학술대회논문집 : 826 ~ 827
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 정성춘 / 2012 / 동일본 대지진 이후 일본의 에너지선택： [발전단가 검증위원회] 결과분석 및 시사점 / KIEP 오늘의 세계경제 12 (3) : 1 ~ 12
7. [학술대회논문] - IAEA / 2012 / Nuclear Technology Review 2012 / Fifty-sixth regular session
8. [보고서] - Awerbuch, S. / 2003 / Applying portfolio theory to EU electricity planning and policy making
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2014-320-003164970