지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
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Since migration causes socio-economic and population changes in urban area, it is considered a significant factor in forecasting demands in a number of urban socio-economic categories. In spite of its importance in planning, however, the existing model lacks in comprehensive explanation of the origins (from where) of migration, the destinations (to where), whom, why, and by how much volume migration takes place inter-regionally. This study is designed to develop a mirgration model for analyzing and forecasting inter-regional migrations, concerning selectivity and determinants of migration which are affected by spatial heterogeneity. In this research, migration model is classified into three levels: Level 1) gender and age-group inter-immigration locations divided by destination; Level 2) by different migration location within an area; and Level 3) by city and gun regional level. Analyzing this model, a hierarchical generalized linear model is employed with consideration on Poisson distribution. Due to spatial effects in level 3, these variables have space-specific effects whose influence become high or relatively low in a specific location. Finally, compared to the existing model, this model"s forecasting quality of gender and age-group migration was precise enough to be used in the real-world urban and regional planning.
목차
Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 인구이동 관련 선행연구 및 모형고찰
Ⅲ. 인구이동 모형의 구축 및 변수 선정
Ⅳ. 모형의 추정 결과 및 모형 평가
Ⅴ. 결론
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