지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 발행연도
- 2011.8
- 수록면
- 239 - 280 (42page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Monitoring the behavior of potential output helps policymakers implement appropriate policies in response to an economic crisis. In the short-run, estimates of the output gap will guide the timing of implementation and withdrawal of stimulus measures. In the medium- to long-term, these estimates will also provide the basis for gauging productive potential and hence guide policies to support the sustainable non-inflationary output growth. In this paper, we investigate the post-crisis behavior of potential output in emerging East Asian economies, by employing the Markov-switching model to account for structural breaks. Results show that after the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, potential output in Hong Kong, China; Korea; Singapore; and Malaysia reverts to the level consistent with the trend prior to the crisis. While there is a permanent drop in potential output in Thailand and Indonesia, growth rates returned to the pre-crisis trend. PRC, Taipei, China, and the Philippines are special cases. Econometric estimates of a simple growth model show that the difference among economies can be attributed to the investment-GDP ratio, macroeconomic policies, exchange rate behavior, and productivity which is proxied by the level of technological activity. These results can guide policy after the 2008 crisis.
목차
1. INTRODUCTION
2. ESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL OUTPUT
3. IMPACT OF FINANCIAL CRISES ON POTENTIAL OUTPUT IN ASIA
4. EMPIRICAL RESULTS
5. POST-CRISIS TRENDS IN POTENTIAL OUTPUT
6. IMPLICATIONS FOR RESPONSES TO THE 2008/09 CRISIS: OUTPUT GAP, EXIT STRATEGIES AND MEDIUM-TERM POLICIES
APPENDIX: ECONOMETRIC MODEL AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS
REFERENCES
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2013-320-001239265