지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Numerical forecasting depends on the initial condition error strongly because numerical model is a chaotic system. To calculate the sensitivity of some forecast aspects to the initial condition in the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Unified Model (UM) which is originated from United Kingdom (UK) Meteorological Office (MO), an algorithm to calculate adjoint sensitivities is developed by modifying the adjoint perturbation forecast model in the KMA UM. Then the new algorithm is used to calculate adjoint sensitivity distributions for typhoon DIANMU (201004). Major initial adjoint sensitivities calculated for the 48 h forecast error are located horizontally in the rear right quadrant relative to the typhoon motion, which is related with the inflow regions of the environmental flow into the typhoon, similar to the sensitive structures in the previous studies. Because of the upward wave energy propagation, the major sensitivities at the initial time located in the low to mid- troposphere propagate upward to the upper troposphere where the maximum of the forecast error is located. The kinetic energy is dominant for both the initial adjoint sensitivity and forecast error of the typhoon DIANMU. The horizontal and vertical energy distributions of the adjoint sensitivity for the typhoon DIANMU are consistent with those for other typhoons using other models, indicating that the tools for calculating the adjoint sensitivity in the KMA UM is credible.
목차
Abstract
1. 서론
2. 수반 민감도
3. 결과
4. 결론 및 요약
감사의 글
참고문헌
참고문헌 (36)
참고문헌 신청
1. [단행본] - 김현미 / 2007 / 목표 관측 수행을 위한 기반 시스템 연구 : 62 ~
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김현미 / 2011 / 2007년 5월 6-8일 황사 현상의 예측 민감도 분석 / 대기 20 (4) : 399 ~ 414
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Ancell, B. C. / 2008 / The variability of adjoint sensitivity with respect to model physics and basic-state trajectory / Mon. Wea. Rev 136 : 4612 ~ 4628
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Buizza, R. / 1994 / Localization of optimal perturbations using a projection operator / Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc 120 : 1647 ~ 1681
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cardinali, C / 2009 / Monitoring the observation impact on the short-range forecast / Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc 135 : 239 ~ 250
2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - 김현미 / 2011 / 2007년 5월 6-8일 황사 현상의 예측 민감도 분석 / 대기 20 (4) : 399 ~ 414
3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Ancell, B. C. / 2008 / The variability of adjoint sensitivity with respect to model physics and basic-state trajectory / Mon. Wea. Rev 136 : 4612 ~ 4628
4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Buizza, R. / 1994 / Localization of optimal perturbations using a projection operator / Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc 120 : 1647 ~ 1681
5. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Cardinali, C / 2009 / Monitoring the observation impact on the short-range forecast / Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc 135 : 239 ~ 250
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2013-453-000429838