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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
Donghyun Park (아시아 개발은행) Gemma Esther B. Estrada (아시아 개발은행)
저널정보
한국경제연구학회 Korea and the World Economy The Journal of the Korean Economy Vol.11 No.1
발행연도
2010.4
수록면
103 - 128 (26page)

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초록· 키워드

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Developing Asian countries have accumulated foreign exchange reserves on an unprecedented scale in recent years. There is a growing consensus that Asia’s reserves now substantially exceed the levels required for precautionary purposes ? i.e., self-protection against currency crisis. The central objective of our paper is to informally and formally test whether reserves in developing Asia have in fact reached excessive levels. Informal tests of reserve adequacy based on widely used rules of thumbs such as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule unambiguously indicate the presence of sizable excess reserves. To test for excess reserves more formally, we use panel-data econometric analysis based on Edison (2003). Our estimation results indicate the presence of large and growing excess reserves since 2002. The results of both informal and formal tests thus confirm the popular belief that developing Asia now has excessive foreign exchange reserves. Therefore, the short-run policy challenge for Asian governments is to manage the region’s burgeoning excess reserves more actively and use them more productively. One promising area of future research, brought to the fore by the global financial crisis, is to develop more nuanced measures of reserve adequacy which take into account the possibility of severe negative shocks.

목차

1. INTRODUCTION
2. STYLIZED FACTS OF DEVELOPING ASIA’S RESERVE BUILD-UP AND THE CONCEPT OF EXCESS RESERVES
3. ARE DEVELOPING ASIA’S RESERVES EXCESSIVE? AN INFORMAL EXAMINATION
4. ARE DEVELOPING ASIA’S RESERVES EXCESSIVE? AN ECONOMETRIC EXAMINATION
5. CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS
REFERENCES

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