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초록· 키워드
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Korea and China currently face continuous strong domestic currency appreciation against U.S. dollar and as a result, the international competitiveness of their export industries has been deteriorated. Two countries have the same difficulties in managing their exchange rate policy because of excessive price rising in real estate market mainly caused by the monetary policy of keeping interest rate low. It is often reported in the media that any further domestic currency appreciation might jeopardize their export competitiveness as well as their overall economic situation.
This study reviewed the trends in exchange rate changes in both Korea and China as well as their exchange rate system changes. Lessons from the 1997 East Asia currency crisis and strong Japanese yen during late 1980s are examined for the preparation of appropriate exchange rate policy of Korea and China. This study concludes that appropriate exchange rate policy during strong domestic currency appreciation era should consider the following factors. It should be based on the framework of overall macroeconomic policy making. If the monetary policy of keeping low interest rate is used, the possible risk of long-term economic recession due to excessive real estate market bubble and collapse like Japan experienced should be carefully perceived. These days it should also consider not only the status of current account but also that of capital account. It should include a kind of target rate zone of exchange rate which should be internally prepared and managed within government. This study suggests that both Korea and China need to consider establishing a governmental level dialogue channel in order to avoid unnecessary international competitiveness deterioration caused by inharmonious exchange rate policy between the two countries.
This study reviewed the trends in exchange rate changes in both Korea and China as well as their exchange rate system changes. Lessons from the 1997 East Asia currency crisis and strong Japanese yen during late 1980s are examined for the preparation of appropriate exchange rate policy of Korea and China. This study concludes that appropriate exchange rate policy during strong domestic currency appreciation era should consider the following factors. It should be based on the framework of overall macroeconomic policy making. If the monetary policy of keeping low interest rate is used, the possible risk of long-term economic recession due to excessive real estate market bubble and collapse like Japan experienced should be carefully perceived. These days it should also consider not only the status of current account but also that of capital account. It should include a kind of target rate zone of exchange rate which should be internally prepared and managed within government. This study suggests that both Korea and China need to consider establishing a governmental level dialogue channel in order to avoid unnecessary international competitiveness deterioration caused by inharmonious exchange rate policy between the two countries.
목차
Abstract
Ⅰ. 서론
Ⅱ. 한ㆍ중 양국의 외환제도 변화추이
Ⅲ. 환율결정요인 분석
Ⅳ. 환율운용전망
Ⅴ. 동아시아 외환위기와 일본의 경험이 주는 시사점과 바람직한 환율정책방향
Ⅵ. 결론
참고문헌
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2010-326-002843272