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The inter-Korean relations have been stalemated since the north Korean nuclear test. Their future depends on the results of the USA-North Korean negotiations, which will proceed in the framework of the next six-party talks. Therefore it is necessary to begin by forecasting the negotiations. In this context I conceive four scenarios, which result from the dyadic correlations between the American and North Korean goals; the CVID of the north Korean nuclear program or Kim’s regime change as US goals, and becoming a nuclear power or putting the program to practical use as north Korean goals. Each scenario, which has its own characteristics, will exert different impacts on the inter-Korean relations. A scenario, in which the USA and north Korea find an equilibrium of their interests, could contribute to recovering the inter-Korean relations as well as to maintenance of peace and stability on the Korean peninsular. Another scenario, in which the US goal of regime change is correlated with the North Korean goal of becoming a nuclear power, could bring about some catastrophic results. The others would also occur, yet might remain as scenarios in a transitional stage, in which circumstances of the inter-Korean relations do not improve so much.
목차
Ⅰ. 머리말
Ⅱ. 북한 핵문제의 향후 전개 시나리오
Ⅲ. 시나리오별 6자회담의 전개과정
Ⅳ. 시나리오별 남북한 관계 전망
Ⅴ. 맺음말
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2010-000-003245602