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논문 기본 정보

자료유형
학술저널
저자정보
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한국기상학회 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.45 No.3
발행연도
2009.8
수록면
357 - 373 (17page)

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초록· 키워드

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One of the objectives of the combined Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS08) and THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) field experiment during August and September 2008 was to improve understanding and prediction of western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation. One approach during TCS08 was to subjectively monitor the performance of the four global models as to whether any of the more than 50 deep convective regions labeled as TCSxxx were predicted to become a tropical depression. When a 850-mb vorticity maximum associated with the convective region could be followed in all four models, a consensus of the track forecasts to 72 h provided surprisingly good guidance for the pre-tropical cyclone seedlings and tropical depressions. An experienced analyst was able to recognize signatures in each of the models that indicate tropical cyclone formation was likely or unlikely. When all four global model forecasts were in agreement that formation was likely, high confidence could be given to the predicted scenario. This four-model consensus approach to predict tropical depression formation was most effective for the four pre-tropical cyclone seedlings that would later become typhoons, and did predict with less advance warning two seedlings that later became tropical storms. However, the global models did not consistently predict the four pre-tropical cyclone seedlings that only attained tropical depression status. The four-model consensus had a relatively small number of false alarms. Even though a three-model consensus had somewhat more false alarms, in most of the low latitude cases the lack of time continuity and a systematic decrease in consensus time to formation will make these cases relatively easy to recognize as false alarms.
#Tropical cyclone formation #numerical weather prediction model performance #Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 #THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign

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Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Track prediction during TCS08/T-PARC
3. Formation prediction during TCS08/T-PARC
4. Summary and concluding remarks
Acknowledgments
APPENDIX
REFERENCES

참고문헌 (4)

참고문헌 신청
1. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Elsberry, R. L / 2007 / Advances in tropical cyclone motion prediction and recommendations for the future / WMO Bull 56 google schola 2. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Russell L. Elsberry / 2008 / Tropical Cyclone Structure (TCS08) Field ExperimentScience Basis, Observational Platforms, and Strategy / 한국기상학회지 44 (3) : 209 ~ 231 google schola 3. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Elsberry, R. L / 2008 / Weighted position and motion vector consensus of tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific / Mon. Wea. Rev 136 : 2478 ~ 2487 google schola 4. [학술지(정기간행물)] - Lee, C.-S / 2008 / Mesoscale features associated with tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific / Mon. Wea. Rev 136 : 2006 ~ 2022 google schola

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