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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국기상학회 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.45 No.3
- 발행연도
- 2009.8
- 수록면
- 319 - 330 (12page)
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초록· 키워드
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In a climate change regime (observed in the past and forecasted for the future), it becomes more and more important to assess the role of the climatic environment in influencing the density of some species of interest. In this paper, using density data from Capture-Mark-Recapture (CMR) of Yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis), we perform non-linear analyses and apply a neural network (NN) model (conceived for recognising links in complex systems) in order to establish which climatic parameters represent the driving forcings of rodent density in Central Italy. We discover direct ad indirect climatic effects on this variable and, finally, a satisfying reconstruction of Yellow-necked mouse densities over the last 20 years is achieved by a NN model. A further “hindcast” in the past (back to 1965) is performed by the model trained on a recent period and clear trends can be recognised in the record of reconstructed densities.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Field studies and meteorological dataset
3. Non-linear analysis and NN model
4. Searching for major influences and nonlinearities
5. Application of neural network modelling
6. Conclusions and prospects
REFERENCES
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UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2009-453-018670782