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논문 기본 정보
- 자료유형
- 학술저널
- 저자정보
- 저널정보
- 한국기상학회 Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Vol.44 No.4
- 발행연도
- 2008.11
- 수록면
- 417 - 441 (25page)
이용수
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
Based on the number of available observatories where daily precipitation was recorded, three analysis periods covering the past 32 years (57 stations), 92 years (5 stations), and 228 years (Seoul) were used. The periodicity of drought in each period was also investigated. In addition, records of ritual praying for rain covering 536 years of the Chosun dynasty were investigated. In addition to using wavelet analysis and spectrum analysis, we focused on defining the drought years and drought periodicities by employing the effective drought index (EDI) and examining the occurrence intervals of very low EDI values. Moreover, we examined the records of drought damage and years of deficient precipitation. By considering date over the whole of Korea, five types of periodicities were found. The 1<SUP>st</SUP> was that random droughts occurred abruptly in random years. The 2<SUP>nd</SUP> was approximately 6 years, with many exceptions; droughts with this interval occurred not over the entire country but only in a part of it. The 3<SUP>rd</SUP> was 12 years, again with many exceptions; droughts with this interval were caused by the disappearance of Changma. The 4<SUP>th</SUP> was 38 years with 16 cases; droughts with this interval frequently lasted for more than two years. The 5<SUP>th</SUP> was 124 years and it occurred twice with the EDI series, lasting for 13 and 29 years, respectively, with 4 more cases detected in history. It is important to note that droughts having the 4<SUP>th</SUP> and 5<SUP>th</SUP> intervals have no exceptions, and thus they can be used as predictors. Using these periodicities, it can be predicted that droughts with the 4<SUP>th</SUP> and 5<SUP>th</SUP> intervals will occur in early 2010 years, and these will be very dangerous.
목차
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Analysis
3. Drought Cycle in Y32 (1974-2005)
4. Concentrated Drought of Y92 (1914-2005)
5. Droughts Cycles Occurring in Seoul for Y228 (1778-2005)
6. Summary and Discussions
REFERENCES
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