지원사업
학술연구/단체지원/교육 등 연구자 활동을 지속하도록 DBpia가 지원하고 있어요.
커뮤니티
연구자들이 자신의 연구와 전문성을 널리 알리고, 새로운 협력의 기회를 만들 수 있는 네트워킹 공간이에요.
초록· 키워드
오류제보하기
The purpose of this paper is two-fold. One is to investigate the determinants of the demand supply of labor, and another is to project long-term demand and supply of labor. The paper consists of three parts. In the first part, theoretical models and important hypotheses are discussed: for the case of a labor supply model, issues regarding discouraged worker model, permanent wage hypothesis, and relative wage hypothesis are examined and for the case of a demand model, issues regarding estimating an employment demand equation within the framework of an inverted short-run production function are inspected. Particularly, a theoretical justification for introducing a demographic cohort variable in a labor supply equation is also investigated.
In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population.
Some major findings are summarized as follows.
(1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 20~24 groups and females aged 14~19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups.
(2) Except for females aged 20~24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups.
(3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations.
(4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (60 and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes.
(5) The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absorb labor force has been declining; that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreases over time.
In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime-age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20~24 and 25~34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25~34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20~24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifically, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995).
In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.
In the second part, empirical results of the estimated supply and demand equations are analyzed. Supply equations are specified differently between primary and secondary labor force. That is, for the case of primary labor force groups including males aged 25 and over, attempts are made to explain the variations in participation behavior within the framework of a neo-classical economics oriented permanent wage hypothesis. On the other hand, for the case of females and young male labor force, variations in participation rates are explained in terms of a relative wage hypothesis. In other words, the participation behavior of primary labor force is related to short-rum business fluctuations, while that of secondary labor force is associated with intermediate swings of business cycles and demographic changes in the age structure of population.
Some major findings are summarized as follows.
(1) For the case of males aged 14~19 and 20~24 groups and females aged 14~19, the effect of schhool enrollment rate is dominant and thus it plays a key role in explaining the recent declining trend of participation rates of these groups.
(2) Except for females aged 20~24, a demographic cohort variable, which captures the impact of changes in the age structure on participation behavior, turns out to show positive and significant coefficients for secondary labor force groups.
(3) A cyclical variable produce significant coefficients for prime-age males and females reflecting that as compared to other groups the labor supply behavior of these groups is more closely related to short-run cyclical variations.
(4) The wage variable, which represents a labor-leisure trade-off turns out to yield significant coefficients only for older age groups (60 and over) for both males and females. This result reveals that unlike the experiences of other higer-income nations, the participation decision of the labor force of our nation is not highly sensitive with respect to wage changes.
(5) The estimated result of the employment demand equation displays that given that the level of GNP remains constant the ability of the economy to absorb labor force has been declining; that is, the elasticity of GNP with respect to labor absorption decreases over time.
In the third part, the results of long-term projections (for the period of 1986 and 1995) for age-sex specific participation rates are discussed. The participation rate of total males is anticipated to increase slightly, which is contrary to the recent trend of declining participation rates of this group. For the groups aged 25 and below, the participation rates are forecast to decline although the magnitude of decrease is likely to shrink. On the other hand, the participation rate of prime-age males (25 to 59 years old) is predicted to increase slightly during 1985 and 1990. For the case of females, except for 20~24 and 25~34 age groups, the participation rates are projected to decrease: the participation rates of 25~34 age group is likely to remain at its current level, while the participation rate of 20~24 age group is expected to increase considerably in the future (specifically, from 55% in 1985 to 61% in 1990 and to 69% in 1995).
In conclusion, while the number of an excess supply of labor will increase in absolute magnitude, its size as a ratio of total labor force is not likely to increase. However, the age composition of labor force is predicted to change; that is, the proportion of prime-age male and female labor force is projected to increase.
목차
Ⅰ. 序論
Ⅱ. 理論的 考察
Ⅲ. 實證分析 論議
Ⅳ. 勞動力 需給展望
Ⅴ. 結語
參考文獻
(Abstract)
참고문헌 (0)
참고문헌 신청함께 읽어보면 좋을 논문
논문 유사도에 따라 DBpia 가 추천하는 논문입니다. 함께 보면 좋을 연관 논문을 확인해보세요!
-
長期 人口成長과 勞動力 需給 展望
한국인구학
1985 .09
-
노동참여의 헌법정치학과 노동헌법 판례
국제정치연구
2016 .12
-
KOREAN PATTERNS OF WOMEN'S LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION DURING THE PERIOD, 1960-1980
Journal of Asian Sociology
1990 .07
-
A DYNAMIC MODEL OF FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE AND HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Journal of Economic Development
2014 .01
-
Changing Industrial Structure and Economic Activity of Older Males in Korea: 1980-2000
Seoul Journal of Economics
2004 .01
-
Female Labor Force Participation and Fertility in South Korea
한국사회학회 사회학대회 논문집
2012 .06
-
THE LABOR FORCE APPROACH AND THE KOREAN LABOR FORCE DATA
Journal of Asian Sociology
1974 .09
-
Identification and Fluctuations of Labor Supply and labor Demand in an Equilibrium Model
전북대학교 산업경제연구소 논문집
1991 .12
-
就業環境的變化與中國勞動人口自殺率的相關性研究 : 1991-2009
동북아 문화연구
2012 .03
-
A Comparative Study on Female Labor Participation in South Korea and Japan : An Extended Age-Period-Cohort(APC) Analysis
한국인구학
2014 .06
-
헌법상 강제노동금지원칙에 대한 검토
노동법학
2018 .09
-
The Impact of WW Ⅱ on Female Employment in the US
한국노사관계학회 학술대회
2018 .02
-
노동력 공급 감소와 질적 향상이 경제성장에 미치는 효과
산업경제연구
2007 .02
-
기혼 유배우 여성의 노동시장 참여에 관한 연구
한국사회과학연구
2005 .06
-
노동시장정책과 쟁점 검토
노동법논총
2015 .08
-
Trends in Female Labor Force Participation and Occupational Shifts in Urban Korea
연세경영연구
1983 .06
-
General Supply and Demand Conditions in the Korean Labor Market
연세경영연구
1974 .12
-
건전한 노사관계 확립을 위한 노동법적 과제
경영법률
2008 .01
-
한국 제조업의 저학력 노동수요 요인 분석
무역연구
2020 .01
-
기업경영과 노동법제 개선방안
경영법률
2009 .01
이 논문의 저자 정보
이 논문과 함께 이용한 논문
최근 본 자료
댓글(0)
0
UCI(KEPA) : I410-ECN-0101-2009-322-017311271